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Cake day: January 8th, 2024

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  • The biggest mistake they made was thinking Iran is like Iraq, Syria, or Afghanistan—countries characterized by dictatorship or clannism/tribalism, where the populations were already divided. Although it is an Islamic Republic, Iran operates as a republic with regular elections where citizens vote for government officials. This is a long-established system that maintains a degree of popular support. Unlike those other states, where it was easier for outside forces to support separatists, the current situation has instead bolstered the government’s narrative. They have effectively managed to convince many that the government was telling the truth about the U.S. and Israel intending to destroy Iran. Ultimately, this has united a large portion of the population behind the state. I fear it will be a long conflict unless something fundamental changes.