“Effective immediately, the ​United States Navy, the Finest in ​the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING ‌any ⁠and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,”

Or what?

Any random country with a navy coming to collect a toll like some sort of sequential highway robbery would be pretty funny.

It’s fully within the territorial waters of Iran or Oman. I’m not an international law expert but it seems that it’s a practiced convention not a legally enforceable rule.

The right of “innocent passage” in a country’s territorial waters is guaranteed by the UNCLOS. It’s a legally binding rule since both Iran and the USA have signed the convention.

But both have probably also violated a dozen of international conventions since the start of the war, so that’s mostly besides the point.

The problem is that the US extorting protection money from merchant ships for passing in an otherwise free international waterway makes the US government look like a mafia state. Which it may very well be, although it tried to avoid making it this clear before.

An embarrassment within an embarrassment…

Not even a ceasefire just a straight defeat.

Probably why it won’t last, or at least violated several times.

Trump wanted an off ramp, but ultimately, it was Iran that handed it to him. Probably won’t do much else in the end but buying time.

What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.

What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.

A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.

Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.

Will still be the case; they need to fund the reparations.

when his demands were met?

were they?

Iran did not give up its uranium, nor was there regime change. The only thing he got was getting the strait open, but that was never a problem before the war he started.

Their Foreign Minister did reply to the proposal, promising to open the strait, their only leverage, for the duration of the negotiations.

What bothers me is that the Iranians seem to take this bait literally without being too critical. They’re basically saying that they’re ready to open the strait right away for negotiations to happen, even when Trump bombed their country during the previous ones. I think they will come to regret this.

He just did. No idea how.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmnp78f2e00003b6sdhw1tohe

The ubiquitous two more weeks.

$500 million was probably just wired from some Epstein fund directly to the Pakistan PM’s account.

Not theoretically, but oil prices just went down.

Well, looks like he TACOed in the end.

Possibly, but its more likely that he just commits more warcirmes and further undermines American hegemony. The point of the far left in advocating for Trump was accelerationist; it’s that he would speed up the collapse of the American Empire. No one expected that this would come without a heavy cost. Kamala would have just delayed the inevitable by a few more years.

Low (10-15%), which is still higher than in “normal” times. Truth is, the elites around him don’t want the world to end while there’s still something left in it for them to exploit. They’ll likely stop him in time if it ever comes to this point. However, it isn’t guaranteed.

There’s no suggestions. There’s no good ending to this.