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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • add on top of that:

    • time for Iran to administrate passage
    • time for each boat to enter/exit under security
    • reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
    • time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases

    estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can’t print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.