This makes Yemen an ideal test of an idea advanced by US strategist Edward Luttwak in his 1999 essay “Give War a Chance”, later applied to Syria in 2013: not every cessation of war constitutes peace, and not every victory produces a desirable outcome.

Sometimes the strategic interest lies in ensuring no side prevails, preserving a balance that prevents any party from defeating the others. In Syria, Luttwak argued that a government victory would strengthen Iran, while its collapse would open the way for “uncontrollable jihadists”, as perceived by Israel and the US, making an “indefinite draw” the optimal US outcome.

More than a decade later, Yemen appears to test this logic without ever formally adopting it. The war has theoretically ended as a conventional confrontation, yet it remains unresolved on the ground.

For more context on Edward Luttwak’s Give War A Chance see https://www.lawreview.nuigalway.ie/the-student-voice/giving-war-a-chance-what-is-the-relevance-of-luttwaks-polemic-for-contemporary-un-conflict-management

Luttwak’s submissions should not be considered without caveats, however. Though he makes a thought-provoking point about ‘giving war a chance,’ he does not engage with the fact that wars are very often not decisively won and that tensions can persist even in the absence of intervention as is the case in Rwanda or Northern Ireland due to the absence of the will and capability of the winning party to impose a solution. It is also submitted that the notion that peacekeeping is a frivolous endeavour undertaken by self-serving NGOs should be rejected as peacekeeping serves a valuable purpose in the correct circumstances. The strategic logic behind peacekeeping is one of disengagement and creating a buffer between warring parties as is the case in Cyprus and between Israel and Palestine.[16] The role of interpolation is not to resolve the conflict in question but to create breathing space for an eventual resolution, a process that could take generations, and which does not necessarily indicate the failure of a mission.