Federal investigators are probing suspicious oil market trades made shortly before a US announcement on talks with Iran, American media reported.

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More than $800 million was staked on oil prices dropping at 6:50 a.m. on March 23. Fifteen minutes later, an announcement about “very good and productive” talks with Iran sent oil prices down by more than 10%.

“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” Former commodities trader David Kovel said.

The report also points to prediction markets, where nine connected Polymarket accounts allegedly made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on US military actions in the Iran war, with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets.

“Luck alone cannot explain those numbers,” Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said.