Not unlike how the 2020 work from home shut down many businesses and demonstrated how much infrastructure is dedicated to travelling between two arbitrary places rather than for living. Businesses that exist to serve bases would shut down (ghost towns eg Rammstein) on both sides of the border - USA has a lot of businesses that sell things mostly to supply a base on the other side of the world with limited practical uses in the USA. Jet fuel demand etc would be reduced. We’d start hearing again about the enormous piles of [toxic] garbage the USA military leaves behind.
Many places also use the US military as a deterrent in lieu of having their own defense. Poland just requested a large US base to deter Russian invasion. South Korea would certainly be in trouble if we left.
Fuel usage would probably be up, as the USA would have no nice spots to from where project power. They’d probably have to boat stuff everywhere all the time at huge costs.
The reason why so many people are happy to have US base in their country, isn’t about defence but about, Thousands of young people with disposable income. It’s a non negligible impact in some places.
And it’s thousands of Americans bringing their money into the region, not just locals circulating existing money between businesses.
But also in some regions, the implied defense is big too, I’d wager just not the majority of them.
Power vacuum will be filled almost instantly by the other powers with bases or interests in the country. Some of the countries affected will gain true sovereignty, for better AND for worse. The US will endure a fraction of the economic hardship it inflicts on everyone else, but it will only be felt by the elite. Society, whatever you mean by that, remains unchanged. This is all in the short-term. There is no predicting how it will unfold after that in general terms since every situation is different
I think to add to what you just said, places where US military bases are at , those local communities, especially their restaurants. Will see a big hit in traffic. Ramstein air base in Germany has over 70,000 Americans there. Those people eat in restaurants in the area (off base) they shop in stores off base. That is a LOT of money going into that economy. And it isn’t all going to major stores (corporate stores) it also goes to mom and pop shops.
Some good, some bad.
amazing insights!
Accurate though
Those bases stabilize regions. I would rather fight wars by have soldiers, airmen and sai,ors buying dinner out and other commodity items, than with bullets.
Finally, a good question.
All the lovers out there will meet the missing husbands and wifes. Hopefully they start meeting the other lovers instead.
For the military, think about Amazon. They can get you a new dildo tomorrow because they have a huge infrastructure of warehouses around the country. The US has a world network of “supplies” for war that will be reduced and create more risk and a time delay if US interests are threatened. In practical terms, you don’t punch an American because America can punch you back tomorrow. If the US maybe can punch you back next week, you’re less concerned with ignoring their interests.
Practically, the local economies will hurt badly, like the Philippines after they reduced the US navel presence. There is also a “living next to a cop” effect that has had more value in the past, but has soured like the idea of living next to a cop.
For the US, we would now need to house all these troops locally, and would end up greatly reducing force size over 20 years. A big pile of active tanks training in Germany doesn’t get much news, but a bunch of expensive tanks training next to a huge line at a soup kitchen is a great photo op.
